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  • DFS NHL Breakdown (Wednesday, December 29): Oilers and Devils Look Strong

DFS NHL Breakdown (Wednesday, December 29): Oilers and Devils Look Strong

By on December 29, 2021 0

The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using tools and metrics from FantasyLabs to highlight notable players.

Wednesday has a main roster of six games starting at 7 p.m. ET.

To note: Projections may change throughout the day after the publication of this article. Check out the player models directly for any updates.

And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like creating your queues by hand or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like entering multiple queues in tournaments.

Center

Best game

Connor McDavid ($ 9,800 DraftKings, $ 10,300 FanDuel) @ St. Louis Blues

The Oilers are back in action today, and we have a huge ceiling projection in FantasyLabs ‘projected points player model of the Oilers’ best player in 2019. Connor mcdavid. McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are both projecting ceiling projections above 23 points today (on DraftKings), which puts them light years ahead of the next top centers on this list.

When looking at which of the two to play first, it’s worth noting that McDavid will be getting his high-end winger back from Zach Hyman, and that factor alone is worth paying a few hundred extra dollars to get close to McDavid. The Blues started to regress a bit in the field of penalties and gave up the seventh scoring chances against this year.

Spending on McDavid is a good place to start in this list.


Higher value

Elias Petersson ($ 3,800 DraftKings, $ 6,100 FanDuel) @ Anaheim Ducks

Another reason we should feel good about making this a “McDavid” night is that there is a lot of elite value available in other positions today. The center is no exception as we can get some serious bargain prices on the Canucks’ top two centers. Elias pettersson has finally started showing signs of life under the guidance of new head coach Bruce Boudreau. Pettersson had scored points in three straight games before the stoppage and also saw his ice time climb back to the 18-19 minute range just before the break.

The Ducks are a tougher opponent, but here we get exposure to a player who has a good streak in blocked shots and shots on goal while also exposing us to the Canucks’ best power play unit. He’s clearly the best value on DraftKings, where he has a 98% bargain odds, but the Canucks center ranks in the top five in ceiling projections at both venues today.

He’s elite value and also a good target against the tide on FanDuel.

Wing

Best game

Filip Forsberg ($ 7,200 DraftKings, $ 7,300 FanDuel) @ Washington Capitals

We have some big wingers to target in this game. While Alexander Ovechkin is evident in a class of its own from a fantastic point of view, I like to take advantage of the discount we get. Philippe Forsberg also. Forsberg ranks directly behind Ovechkin in player reviews on FanDuel today and is also offered for a lower price of $ 3,000. It has a good trend in both long-term and short-term stats and ranks in the top 5% of FantasyLabs Pro trends in shot attempts and shots on goal over the past month.

The Predators have a top-six power play advantage in this game, and Forsberg is averaging 4.5 elite blocked shots + shots on goal in his last 10 games. If we’re planning on paying at the center and other positions today, taking the discount we’re getting here on Forsberg, which is in the top five in the model, makes sense from a list-building standpoint.


Higher value

David Perron ($ 4,600 DraftKings, $ 6,100 FanDuel) vs. Edmonton Oilers

No team was happier to see the NHL take a break for a few days than the Blues, who had faced multiple cases of COVID and injuries to their top players. The Blues are ready to come back David Perron today (UBI), and the winger should be reinserted directly into the Blues forward rotation in the top six. Perron is averaging around a point per game this year and today ranks second for best player ratings on DraftKings, where its price is ridiculously low at just $ 4,600.

The poor situation for the Oilers goaltenders creates a good opportunity to build a stack of leverage against them every night as well, especially with an elite offense and power play like the Blues. St. Louis’ power play has subsided, but they are still third in the NHL and will face an Oilers team that has allowed at least three goals in seven of their last eight games. Perron is a great target here with a well-rested Blues team coming off a well-deserved break.

Defense

Best game

Dougie Hamilton ($ 7,800 DraftKings, $ 6,500 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabers

Much like the center, where there was a clear gap between the top two options and the rest of the field, defense feels like a position where paying to the end should really pay off. Dougie Hamilton Today has a ceiling projection more than three points higher than the next best player in his role and faces a Sabers team that allows for the fourth highest number of shots on goal per game.

Hamilton and the Devils come into this game with a strong implied goal tally of 3.3 and the former Hurricane is a solid 4.1 Blocked Shots + Shots on goal in his last 10 games. Hamilton and the Jersey power play are obviously in a good position to produce points at this point, and the elite defender soon appears to be a breakout contender with his shooting percentage in the last 10 games being well below his career average.

Much like the center, paying for the best of the best here seems worth it today, and there are some great options (see below) to pair with him on your defending rost as well.

Higher value

Alexandre Carrier ($ 3,000 DraftKings, $ 4,600 FanDuel) @ Washington Capitals

Predators will be Roman Josi (COVID) free, and this has elevated the likes of Alexandre carrier to a more important role. Carrier served as the team’s senior power-play quarterback with the departure of Josi, and he comes into the game with points in three straight games. Carrier might not perform at an elite level in terms of blocked shots and shots on goal, but his ice time is progressing well and he should continue to see almost 20 minutes or more per game with Josi out.

It is extremely well regarded as a bargain today on both sites, but is obviously an elite punt game on DraftKings, where it is clearly poorly priced at just $ 3,000. While Carrier will likely require his team to score goals today to really deliver value (so he can get some cheap assist), the risk is well worth it given the opportunities he has. and how cheap it is.

Goalkeepers

Be sure to check the starting goalies page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.

Best game

Sergei Bobrovsky ($ 8,300 DraftKings, $ 8,400 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers

The biggest favorite on the roster today is the Florida Panthers, who are at home and face a Rangers team who actually have more wins than Florida but also have under 3.0 goals per game. on average. Sergey Bobrovsky had started to calm down a bit before the break, but he’s also had strong home gaps this season and is 9-1 at home this year.

Ultimately, we have to trust the numbers here, and Bobrovsky is not only a -181 favorite, but also ranks with a ceiling projection that is three points higher than the next goalkeeper in the model. points projected today on FantasyLabs. He’s a good payoff goal against a Rangers offense that really hasn’t been that great in 2021.

Mackenzie Blackwood ($ 7,800 DraftKings, $ 6,900 FanDuel) @ Buffalo Sabers

The Devils come into this game with -140 favorites on the silver line, making them one of the strongest favorites on this list, which has a lot of tight games from an odds perspective. Mackenzie blackwood It has certainly had a season of ups and downs, but some of its recent woes have been sparked by an apparent neck injury. The now healthy Blackwood is available at good prices tonight at both sites and ranks with the fourth best ceiling projection on slate.

With no dominant / favorite players to pay in net today, the Devils starter seems to be well placed here for DFS purposes and will certainly be a great option on FanDuel, where he costs less than $ 7,000 (and possibly not even that heavy listed due to her recent play logs which are all poor).


Noticeable battery

Oilers L1 – Conner McDavid – Zach Hyman – Warren Foegele

Devils L1 – Nico Hischier – Paval Zacha – Jesper Bratt

With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.

I already mentioned the Oilers in this article above, and the fact that they get Zach Hyman the return for this match against the Blues is significant for DFS. He’s already scored 11 goals and is an easy target to stack with Conner McDavid as the two will be joined at the hip in power play and regular strength. The Oilers’ top row today ranks with the highest rating in the stacking tool under the projected points pattern on FantasyLabs.

Coming just behind the Oilers is an equal boon in the Devils’ top line. The New Jersey trio of Hischier, Zacha and Bratt have become a great correlation trio as they often stay together on the power play as well as evenly matched. The clash with the Sabers here raised most of them to today’s model on FantasyLabs, and they come in behind the Oilers in terms of strength in terms of stacking. Pulling out Zacha and inserting Dougie Hamilton to get better power play exposure here is also something you might want to consider.


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